CARBON REDUCTIONS
Despite accumulating evidence of climate change that threatens the balance of life on this planet as we know it and despite scientific consensus that it is man-made, many still deny this “inconvenient truth”. Significant steps to abate the effects of growing greenhouse gases (GHG) are not yet forthcoming. Vested interests in the sale of carbon fuels – especially coal, oil and natural gas – and, by extension, car manufacturers and highway contractors – underlie this dangerous inertia.
Bold new goals are coming out of professional groups such as the International Society of City and Regional Planners (Isocarp) and the International Coalition of Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI). They are calling for an 80% reduction in all urban GHG emissions by 2050. GHG is a term common in international circles: it is just now making its way into America’s civic vocabulary.
When will we ever learn?
If APMs were applied to extend and support improved rail transit in combination with programs to encourage and accommodate walking and biking, the US could shift the modal balance so that 25 percent of urban travel is by transit by 2025: 25 by ’25.
Transportation accounts for 28 percent of US GHG emissions according the US Department of Transportation . At the current rate of growth, it will by 36% by 2020. Transportation is a major source of the problem and challenge. Over 95% of US urban travel is by road vehicles. Beefing up conventional mass transit will hardly make a dent in this. Either road vehicles must convert to non-carbon propulsion, or a major shift from road transport to green modes – walking, biking and effective transit – is required.
Japan's Institution for Transport Policy Studies forecast GHG trends in Copenhagen in December 2009.
The USDOT report focuses on the value of long-term horizons. We should establish links between land use and transportation, and on the importance of “co-benefits” – that is, demonstrating that GHG reductions advance other important goals. The report concludes that climate considerations can positively shape the selection of investments and strategies in the transportation planning process.
APMs can play a significant role by reinforcing and extending mass transit. Upgrading existing rail transit to driverless operation (and including integral automation in new metros) will increase the attractiveness of existing metros and commuter rail corridors. The benefit is affordable, more frequent service - even in off-peak hours. Future service will also be safer and more comfortable (programmed to avoid the jerks often caused by manual maneuvers).
Well-ordered, transit-oriented cities such as Copenhagen
thrive while reducing greenhouse gases.
Local circulators and PRT networks can feed into stations, thus extending the reach of metros. Small-scale APMs can also serve in districts too small or too low in density to support conventional rail – allowing infill development that doesn’t increase congestion that makes highway destinations less attractive.
A comprehensive approach of Smart Urban Mobility (SUM) includes measures to tame traffic, to regulate and rationalize parking, to enhance pedestrian and bicycle travel, and to facilitate car-free living with easy carsharing. This comprehensive approach enhances the benefits of APMs and conventional transit. SUM can induce a major mode shift to green travel and a comparable reduction of carbon emissions. If applied, SUM makes the challenges to reduce GHG by 80% in four decades realizable.
1. Integration of Climate Considerations into Transportation Decision-Making, US DOT, 2009.